BETWEEN STRATEGIC AUTONOMY AND EUROPEAN CONDITIONALITY: RETHINKING TURKEY–EU RELATIONS IN A FRAGMENTED GLOBAL ORDER

Abstract

This article reassesses European Union (EU)–Turkey relations in an increasingly fragmented global order, focusing on how Turkey’s pursuit of strategic autonomy and the EU’s reshaped understanding of conditionality are redefining bilateral interactions beyond the framework of membership. Adopting a qualitative approach, this article employs discourse analysis and policy document analysis to trace shifts in institutional discourses, bilateral agreements, and regional interventions. Drawing on the concepts of strategic autonomy and post-conditionality, the study interprets the evolution of Turkey’s foreign policy behavior and the EU’s adaptation to these dynamics. This article demonstrates that EU–Turkey relations are evolving from normative convergence to a functional, interest-based partnership. While strategic interdependence in areas such as migration, security, and energy is intensifying, political cohesion continues to decline. Thus, it concludes that EU–Turkey relations are best understood through a hybrid model termed strategic partnership-plus. This concept highlights that relations combine pragmatic cooperation with elements of EU conditionality, selective sectoral integration, and Turkey’s pursuit of strategic autonomy, offering a more accurate lens to capture their complexity within the current fragmented global order.

Keywords: EU–Turkey relations, strategic autonomy, conditionality, geopolitical order, partnership models